Estimating excess 1-year mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic according to underlying conditions and age: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The medical, societal, and economic impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has unknown effects on overall population mortality. Previous models of population mortality are based on death over days among infected people, nearly all of whom thus far have underlying conditions. Models have not incorporated information on high-risk conditions or their longer-term baseline (pre-COVID-19) mortality. We estimated the excess number of deaths over 1 year under different COVID-19 incidence scenarios based on varying levels of transmission suppression and differing mortality impacts based on different relative risks for the disease. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we used linked primary and secondary care electronic health records from England (Health Data Research UK-CALIBER). We report prevalence of underlying conditions defined by Public Health England guidelines (from March 16, 2020) in individuals aged 30 years or older registered with a practice between 1997 and 2017, using validated, openly available phenotypes for each condition. We estimated 1-year mortality in each condition, developing simple models (and a tool for calculation) of excess COVID-19-related deaths, assuming relative impact (as relative risks [RRs]) of the COVID-19 pandemic (compared with background mortality) of 1·5, 2·0, and 3·0 at differing infection rate scenarios, including full suppression (0·001%), partial suppression (1%), mitigation (10%), and do nothing (80%). We also developed an online, public, prototype risk calculator for excess death estimation. FINDINGS: We included 3 862 012 individuals (1 957 935 [50·7%] women and 1 904 077 [49·3%] men). We estimated that more than 20% of the study population are in the high-risk category, of whom 13·7% were older than 70 years and 6·3% were aged 70 years or younger with at least one underlying condition. 1-year mortality in the high-risk population was estimated to be 4·46% (95% CI 4·41-4·51). Age and underlying conditions combined to influence background risk, varying markedly across conditions. In a full suppression scenario in the UK population, we estimated that there would be two excess deaths (vs baseline deaths) with an RR of 1·5, four with an RR of 2·0, and seven with an RR of 3·0. In a mitigation scenario, we estimated 18 374 excess deaths with an RR of 1·5, 36 749 with an RR of 2·0, and 73 498 with an RR of 3·0. In a do nothing scenario, we estimated 146 996 excess deaths with an RR of 1·5, 293 991 with an RR of 2·0, and 587 982 with an RR of 3·0. INTERPRETATION: We provide policy makers, researchers, and the public a simple model and an online tool for understanding excess mortality over 1 year from the COVID-19 pandemic, based on age, sex, and underlying condition-specific estimates. These results signal the need for sustained stringent suppression measures as well as sustained efforts to target those at highest risk because of underlying conditions with a range of preventive interventions. Countries should assess the overall (direct and indirect) effects of the pandemic on excess mortality. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre, Health Data Research UK

Abundant copy-number loss of CYCLOPS and STOP genes in gastric adenocarcinoma

Background Gastric cancer, a leading cause of cancer death worldwide, has been little studied compared with other cancers that impose similar health burdens. Our goal is to assess genomic copy-number loss and the possible functional consequences and therapeutic implications thereof across a large series of gastric adenocarcinomas. Methods We used high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism microarrays to determine patterns of copy-number loss and allelic imbalance in 74 gastric adenocarcinomas. We investigated whether suppressor of tumorigenesis and/or proliferation (STOP) genes are associated with genomic copy-number loss. We also analyzed the extent to which copy-number loss affects Copy-number alterations Yielding Cancer Liabilities Owing to Partial losS (CYCLOPS) genes–genes that may be attractive targets for therapeutic inhibition when partially deleted. Results The proportion of the genome subject to copy-number loss varies considerably from tumor to tumor, with a median of 5.5 %, and a mean of 12 % (range 0–58.5 %). On average, 91 STOP genes were subject to copy-number loss per tumor (median 35, range 0–452), and STOP genes tended to have lower copy-number compared with the rest of the genes. Furthermore, on average, 1.6 CYCLOPS genes per tumor were both subject to copy-number loss and downregulated, and 51.4 % of the tumors had at least one such gene. Conclusions The enrichment of STOP genes in regions of copy-number loss indicates that their deletion may contribute to gastric carcinogenesis. Furthermore, the presence of several deleted and downregulated CYCLOPS genes in some tumors suggests potential therapeutic targets in these tumors.Singapore. Ministry of Health (Duke-NUS Signature Research Programs)Singapore. Agency for Science, Technology and ResearchSingapore-MIT Allianc

Systematic evaluation and external validation of 22 prognostic models among hospitalised adults with COVID-19: an observational cohort study.

The number of proposed prognostic models for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is growing rapidly, but it is unknown whether any are suitable for widespread clinical implementation.We independently externally validated the performance of candidate prognostic models, identified through a living systematic review, among consecutive adults admitted to hospital with a final diagnosis of COVID-19. We reconstructed candidate models as per original descriptions and evaluated performance for their original intended outcomes using predictors measured at the time of admission. We assessed discrimination, calibration and net benefit, compared to the default strategies of treating all and no patients, and against the most discriminating predictors in univariable analyses.We tested 22 candidate prognostic models among 411 participants with COVID-19, of whom 180 (43.8%) and 115 (28.0%) met the endpoints of clinical deterioration and mortality, respectively. Highest areas under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves were achieved by the NEWS2 score for prediction of deterioration over 24 h (0.78, 95% CI 0.73-0.83), and a novel model for prediction of deterioration <14 days from admission (0.78, 95% CI 0.74-0.82). The most discriminating univariable predictors were admission oxygen saturation on room air for in-hospital deterioration (AUROC 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81), and age for in-hospital mortality (AUROC 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.81). No prognostic model demonstrated consistently higher net benefit than these univariable predictors, across a range of threshold probabilities.Admission oxygen saturation on room air and patient age are strong predictors of deterioration and mortality among hospitalised adults with COVID-19, respectively. None of the prognostic models evaluated here offered incremental value for patient stratification to these univariable predictors

Delayed diagnosis of intermittent mesenteroaxial volvulus of the stomach by computed tomography: a case report

10.1186/1752-1947-2-343Journal of Medical Case Reports234

Characterization of patients with idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus using natural language processing within an electronic healthcare record system

OBJECTIVE: Idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH) is an underdiagnosed, progressive, and disabling condition. Early treatment is associated with better outcomes and improved quality of life. In this paper, the authors aimed to identify features associated with patients with iNPH using natural language processing (NLP) to characterize this cohort, with the intention to later target the development of artificial intelligence–driven tools for early detection. / METHODS: The electronic health records of patients with shunt-responsive iNPH were retrospectively reviewed using an NLP algorithm. Participants were selected from a prospectively maintained single-center database of patients undergoing CSF diversion for probable iNPH (March 2008–July 2020). Analysis was conducted on preoperative health records including clinic letters, referrals, and radiology reports accessed through CogStack. Clinical features were extracted from these records as SNOMED CT (Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine Clinical Terms) concepts using a named entity recognition machine learning model. In the first phase, a base model was generated using unsupervised training on 1 million electronic health records and supervised training with 500 double-annotated documents. The model was fine-tuned to improve accuracy using 300 records from patients with iNPH double annotated by two blinded assessors. Thematic analysis of the concepts identified by the machine learning algorithm was performed, and the frequency and timing of terms were analyzed to describe this patient group. / RESULTS: In total, 293 eligible patients responsive to CSF diversion were identified. The median age at CSF diversion was 75 years, with a male predominance (69% male). The algorithm performed with a high degree of precision and recall (F1 score 0.92). Thematic analysis revealed the most frequently documented symptoms related to mobility, cognitive impairment, and falls or balance. The most frequent comorbidities were related to cardiovascular and hematological problems. / CONCLUSIONS: This model demonstrates accurate, automated recognition of iNPH features from medical records. Opportunities for translation include detecting patients with undiagnosed iNPH from primary care records, with the aim to ultimately improve outcomes for these patients through artificial intelligence–driven early detection of iNPH and prompt treatment

Excess deaths in people with cardiovascular diseases during the COVID-19 pandemic

AimsCardiovascular diseases (CVDs) increase mortality risk from coronavirus infection (COVID-19). There are also concerns that the pandemic has affected supply and demand of acute cardiovascular care. We estimated excess mortality in specific CVDs, both 'direct', through infection, and 'indirect', through changes in healthcare.Methods and resultsWe used (i) national mortality data for England and Wales to investigate trends in non-COVID-19 and CVD excess deaths; (ii) routine data from hospitals in England (n = 2), Italy (n = 1), and China (n = 5) to assess indirect pandemic effects on referral, diagnosis, and treatment services for CVD; and (iii) population-based electronic health records from 3 862 012 individuals in England to investigate pre- and post-COVID-19 mortality for people with incident and prevalent CVD. We incorporated pre-COVID-19 risk (by age, sex, and comorbidities), estimated population COVID-19 prevalence, and estimated relative risk (RR) of mortality in those with CVD and COVID-19 compared with CVD and non-infected (RR: 1.2, 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0).Mortality data suggest indirect effects on CVD will be delayed rather than contemporaneous (peak RR 1.14). CVD service activity decreased by 60-100% compared with pre-pandemic levels in eight hospitals across China, Italy, and England. In China, activity remained below pre-COVID-19 levels for 2-3 months even after easing lockdown and is still reduced in Italy and England. For total CVD (incident and prevalent), at 10% COVID-19 prevalence, we estimated direct impact of 31 205 and 62 410 excess deaths in England (RR 1.5 and 2.0, respectively), and indirect effect of 49 932 to 99 865 deaths.ConclusionSupply and demand for CVD services have dramatically reduced across countries with potential for substantial, but avoidable, excess mortality during and after the pandemic

Retroperitoneal liposarcomas: The experience of a tertiary Asian center

10.1186/1477-7819-9-12World Journal of Surgical Oncology9

The distinctive gastric fluid proteome in gastric cancer reveals a multi-biomarker diagnostic profile

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Overall gastric cancer survival remains poor mainly because there are no reliable methods for identifying highly curable early stage disease. Multi-protein profiling of gastric fluids, obtained from the anatomic site of pathology, could reveal diagnostic proteomic fingerprints.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Protein profiles were generated from gastric fluid samples of 19 gastric cancer and 36 benign gastritides patients undergoing elective, clinically-indicated gastroscopy using surface-enhanced laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry on multiple ProteinChip arrays. Proteomic features were compared by significance analysis of microarray algorithm and two-way hierarchical clustering. A second blinded sample set (24 gastric cancers and 29 clinically benign gastritides) was used for validation.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>By significance analysyis of microarray, 60 proteomic features were up-regulated and 46 were down-regulated in gastric cancer samples (<it>p </it>< 0.01). Multimarker clustering showed two distinctive proteomic profiles independent of age and ethnicity. Eighteen of 19 cancer samples clustered together (sensitivity 95%) while 27/36 of non-cancer samples clustered in a second group. Nine non-cancer samples that clustered with cancer samples included 5 pre-malignant lesions (1 adenomatous polyp and 4 intestinal metaplasia). Validation using a second sample set showed the sensitivity and specificity to be 88% and 93%, respectively. Positive predictive value of the combined data was 0.80. Selected peptide sequencing identified pepsinogen C and pepsin A activation peptide as significantly down-regulated and alpha-defensin as significantly up-regulated.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This simple and reproducible multimarker proteomic assay could supplement clinical gastroscopic evaluation of symptomatic patients to enhance diagnostic accuracy for gastric cancer and pre-malignant lesions.</p